That question stopped being hypothetical last week.
The U.S. sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan; Tehran called it “maximalist and unreasonable” and denied talks were even happening. Oil climbed back above $106. The White House began quietly modelling $200. Since then, Trump has threatened to obliterate Iran’s oil facilities, Iranian forces continue to attack across the Gulf, and the stopgap measures keeping crude prices artificially contained are expected to expire later this month.
Whatever hope remained that this would be a short war is fading. And with it, the assumption that the economic damage would be too. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said high oil prices for a sustained period would trigger a “steep and stark recession” — one that, according to the World Advertising Research Center, could wipe out nearly $50 billion in ad spend this year — and another $44 billion the next. It’s the worst-case scenario. Or at least it was.
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